Two factors are setting the table for an historic election with a strong independent candidacy unseen since Ross Perot.
First, the states are moving up their primary dates. Historically, a party’s nominee might not be decided until late spring. This year, the whole contest might be decided by mid-January. This leaves ten months - ten months for people to get bored or experience buyer’s remorse - ten months for someone to mount an independent candidacy. Supposing Romney and Clinton are the nominees, one can certainly imagine that by March, people might want another choice.
And my prediction is that it will be Rudy Giuliani. There is huge support for Rudy right now. He’s been leading in the polls for a year. But thanks to his unapologetic pro-choice stance, he’s going to be drummed out of the Republican contest in a heartbeat. He won’t know what hit him. There will be a lot of disgruntled, disappointed Rudy supporters, and I believe they’ll draft him into an independent run unencumbered by the religious right. After being so summarily spurned by the Republican base, I think Rudy may jump in as an independent, and chart an agenda that does not split the conservative vote.
If Perot got 19% in 1992, what could a sane person do in 2008?
Comments